Now technology bubbles up to the Business Enterprise level from Consumers

The technology at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) will bubble up into business and into enterprises quickly – far quicker than IBM, HPE, Cisco, or any of the enterprise strength IT companies would like. Initially technology came from business to consumers – think PCs. The sheer size of consumer market and its willingness to put up with beta releases makes the consumer world the ideal proving ground for the less fault tolerant enterprise world.

Drones are bubbling up. While they started in the military, they now are big segment of the consumer market. Drones or autonomous flying vehicles have been improving including automated stabilization, 4K cameras, enhanced flying times, etc. Many of them have dozens of computers on board and some rather impressive programming to make them simple to use.

Due to the wide-spread usage of drones in the consumer market, they are vastly improved and far less expensive. One of the leader’s in the industry, DJI’s basic drone, Phantom 3 Standard, is just under $500 flying for ~25 mins, includes GPS tracking, tracks subjects based photo recognition using a 1080 camera for photos and stills. Refurb is $329 and knock offs are even cheaper.  Just 5 years ago, this would have been a top of the line $5K drone, if even available.

Part of the attractiveness of the consumer world is scale. The other factor is that the consumer world is filled with willing beta testers. Recent releases of drones from reputable companies come with lots of complaints on the internal boards of not flying well, not following waypoints, and simply flying away. A drone that loses its signal is supposed to fly back to the point of origin and land. In the business world, this would be a breach of contract and might result in loss of property or life. In the consumer world, the drone manufacturer can just send a firmware update, a coupon, or at worst replaces the device.

While scale makes the money, it is the willing beta tester that enables advancement. Haven’t you signed up to be a beta or an alpha tester. I know I am for many of IBM’s early release programs. We have marvelous internal site called “Technology Adoption Program” where individuals submit their software inventions. Many have become key enablers of IBM’s business.

What else might bubble up? Virtual Reality has real possibilities for training. Consumer IoT devices will make it into manufacturing. Fitness IoT devices will make it into Medical IoT devices. Home IoT devices by Amazon, Google, and Apple will rapidly make both IoT device and cognitive (AI) advances as we all beta test their devices for more hardened uses. I know send in correction reports regularly and in general they do a good job following up. The list is endless as people gobble up consumer technologies.

We used to make fun of 3rd world countries using the computers out of toys to steer their weapons. Maybe they were just ahead of their time.

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Mary Meeker Report

Mary Meeker Report

What is going to happen in the future?  Honestly, no one knows which is what makes it exciting, but a lot of us try to look at current trends and project the future.  It is not a crystal ball.  One of the best for politics is Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/) from the NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com).  His recent predications on the elections have been spot on.  In his book, Signal to Noise (http://www.amazon.com/dp/159420411X), he looks at how people ignore the data based on their own bias.

The Mary Meeker report really doesn’t draw any conclusions.  It offers more of pure data view, but you get the picture of where it is pointing.  You certainly can see the new expanding power base in China and India.  It warns us to learn from our past, which is why we all need to study some history.  I encourage you to spend some time with it and put aside your biases so you see the “signal” and can shut out the “noise”.  It is a fun filled 110+ page ride.  

Let me know what you see in the data.