Simple Coronavirus COVID-19 facts

Every statement in this blog came from a reasonable source. None of the information is unique. I hope it helpful.

Coronavirus is the disease. COVID-19 is the name of the virus. 

Viruses are basically living chemicals. They are strips of RNA which get into our bodies and force our DNA to replicate the virus. This happens over and over building up more and more active viruses in your body.

The test for COVID-19 is nasal swab, like a flu test, and testing for the replication. It is only effective if you have enough of the virus in your system that they virus can infect a DNA sample and force replication which is the sign of the disease. Generally, you don’t have enough if you are NOT showing symptoms. There is NO antibody test to date which would show your body has been exposed and has some level of resistance.

COVID-19 is *NOT* an airborne virus. Yes, you can get it from mist of cough or sneeze, but it doesn’t live in the air. When it’s in that “mist”, it’s living on droplets, not the air. This is why it’s important to cover up (blocks the mist) and why sick people in public must wear a mask.

COVID-19 can live on surfaces. Smoother ones seem to let it live longer – up to 48 hours. Rough ones like paper and cardboard less so – a few hours. This is why it important to disinfect surfaces. If the surface is warmer, it they tend to die/denature dfaster.

COVID-19 can be killed with exposure to heat. Viruses are mostly proteins and especially the active part – RNA. Heat denatures (breaks the bonds and links) of the protein and effectively kills it. It is one of the reasons we cook our food – think pressure cooker.

Wash your hands. Washing your hands for 20 seconds or more in plain soap and water frequently can greatly reduce your chances of getting virus. The most common path is you pick up the virus on your hands and rub your face, eyes, mouth, nose, etc. and place the virus where it can enter your body. If you got to rub your face, wash first, then its ok, but still don’t pick your nose in public. 

Will warmer weather will end Coronavirus. This is an extrapolation of the lab data. COVID-19 is related to cold viruses which don’t die back in summer. Viruses are remarkably resistant. Even if it dies back, it might come back even worse in the fall.

Optional medical procedures are being canceled. Hospitals are overwhelmed either with Coronavirus or preparing for it. If that hospital is treating Coronavirus, you are better off not being in the building being exposed while in a weakened state. Truly urgent patients are being treated. The other danger is medical treatments place us in close proximity to others (doctors, nurses, other patients) which is to be avoided, too.

Social distancing works by preventing the spread. The virus depends on humans spreading it via fluid contact (sneeze, cough, contaminated surface, etc.). If we don’t come in contact with each other, COVID-19 has no way to reproduce and spread. Coronavirus will be stopped if we don’t cheat.

Naming of the disease – 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease. There was an active effort by the WHO and others to avoid confusion by calling it SARS (accurate) or flu (inaccurate) or demonize a group of people (Chinese). The disease has been called Novel coronavirus pneumonia, Wuhan pneumonia, Wuhan coronavirus or just “Coronavirus”. The gene bank labeled it SARS-CoV-2. Calling in Chinese Flu is about as helpful as calling it “meat eaters pneumonia” or “wild game eaters disease”. This wouldn’t have happened if everyone was vegetarian or vegan so say my vegan and vegetarian friends. Let’s agree to keep racial prejudice and conspiracy theories out of medicine and science.

While I haven’t put a source with each entry, each came from reputable source and can be verified as of time of publication. Many of these are covered in World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) myth busters.

Sources:

Why soap works courtesy of Alton Brown:

Good information and data analysis:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Informative presentation from Dr. Michael Lin.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view

#flattenthecurve – work from home tips

The virus, Corona Virus, or COVID-19, is not going to be quick based on what we’ve seen from other countries. If you are fortunate, you are one of the people who can work from home and get paid. Keep in mind a lot of people can’t, so be a little extra patient when out in public for one of your limited errands. Remember, we are not stopping the virus. We are simply slowing the transmission (#flattenthecurve) so we don’t overwhelm the healthcare system. Keep in mind the sun will come up tomorrow, too.

Why we need to do social distancing and what it does and doesn’t do.

I’ve read a lot of great entries on working from home. I’ll put the links at the end of this post. I have my take on it. I’ve spent most of 30+ years working from home when not at client sites or gathering at an office to do proposal work.

  1. Get a good chair. Most of us grab any chair, but you when you spend about 8+ hours a day sitting, a good chair is necessary. I have Herman-Miller Aeron which drooled over at most high tech companies. I found one on e-bay almost brand new.
  2. Avoid your chair. Find ways to not be in the chair. If you are just listening, consider taking your conference calls while walking.
  3. Get a good headset. I use Apple products, so my AirPods work great for me. They aren’t so tight in my ear that it goes numb. The Jabra’s have great ratings if you like. If you have noise canceling, please don’t wear them when you are walking (see #2). The headset will keep your family / roommates from killing you, too, as they listen to all that boring work monologues.
  4. Continue or start Exercising. Your gym closed down but there are lots of solo alternatives. You can try the 6-minute workout, 7-minute workout (lots of apps for this), weights (order if not owned), pull-up bar, or isometrics (bands – low tech, ActiveBody Activ5 – high tech) are just a few options.
  5. Set your work hours. For me, it’s an approximate time to start and stop my day along with a total number of hours for the week. If you have more of 9-5 job then keep those hours. Bottom line, don’t start working 100 hours just because you are not going to the office. A Do Not Disturb sign on the door of even a post-it note can be as effective, too. Just don’t expect others to read your mind.
  6. Cable Modem and Internet Speed. Get as much speed / bandwidth as you can comfortably afford. If you are renting your cable modem, see how much it sets you back because a good one is usually <$100 and buying your own might break you even with the faster speeds. All of the cable modems use a DOCSIS standard, so they can be swapped out.
  7. Router & WiFi. If you haven’t applied the latest software / patches, do so now. If you haven’t physically updated your Router & WiFi in 2 or 3 years, it is probably worth buying another one especially if you have large house. The mesh WiFi routers do a great job of giving you seamless coverage as you walk around your house and maybe even yard. Most management is done via smartphone app. Nest is great value if you don’t mind Google. Eero comes up strong and easy to use. NetGear’s Orbi is a top performer requires a browser to access the advanced functions.
  8. Indicate you are working. Try to get a separate work space. Make it very clear that you are working especially if you are on calls and video calls. Having your roommate / spouse / visitor / child parade across you video conference inappropriately dressed (use your imagination) or you might become an international sensation (see Professor Robert Kelly). A door is great if you have your own room. I also have an “On Air” sign that I use different colors to indicate (voice call or watching video / training, voice call with client, webcam call, webcam call with client).
  9. Desk. I try to get a leaf blower and clear mine, but I confess, I’m not good at the clean desk scenario. Try to do your best tidy up each day. I did purchase an adjustable height desk and I sometimes raise it to stand and take calls. I prefer to avoid the desk and take a walk (see # 2).
  10. Conference calls and WebCam chats. Learn to use the features of your ZOOM, Webex, FaceTime, or other tools. Mute when not speaking. Turn off the camera if you need to do something distracting including stepping away. Wear solid colors and avoid small patterns and checks if using video (makes your image appear fuzzy). If you are mediator, learn how to mute a persons line, mute everyone, and eject someone from the session.
  11. Be kind to others. People are stressed out of their minds due to fear of the unknown. Keep this in mind when you react to your family, friends, co-workers and clients. Take a deep breath and then respond. If it is an e-mail that can wait, let it sit in draft for a few hours. Try to take out all the trigger and emotional words in your note. Also be as brief as possible. If the topic is loaded with subtleties, pick up the phone or do a 1:1 WebCam chat where you can better understand the non-verbal part of the discussion.

Where I usually go for advice on gear:

The Wire Cutter

CNET

If you’ve got kids, try to recognize they are just kids and they look to you to support. If you’re nervous, they’ll see it. Keep them busy. Scholastic also put together free resources for school age kids. Use this as time to educate your kids on some life skills like changing the oil, a tire, pruning a bush, deep cleaning and organizing, and cooking and sharing great meals. In my family, we cook together. Whatever you do, share, keep positive, have patience, and make sure the activity is age appropriate.

Scholastic Daily Class for free

One of many cooking with kids

Cincinnati Zoo Facebook Live feeds including Fiona the Hippo

Another great blogger with a great list:

As one of the memes going around said, “Your grandparents went to war to save the world. You’re only being asked to sit on your couch.” Take walk, be kind to yourself, close friends, and family, and the sun will come up tomorrow.

Computer Security

No one would dare drive a car with a rope tied around their lap, but you’d access your life’s savings with 4-digit PIN. Neither action makes sense. Good passwords are a minimum requirement.

A recent article, How Biometrics Is Becoming the Security of the Future, made me think about digital security. While biometrics are convenient, they are really just an access method and doesn’t invalidate the use of a good password. I don’t know of single biometric tool that isn’t tied to password. So if your password is “p@ssw0rd”, you still have poor security even though your face or fingerprint is unique.

My rules for passwords are simple.

Lock your devices with solid passwords. Your smartphone and your PC are your digital twin and probably have access to your entire financial world. Why would you leave them wide open for someone to grab and gain access to almost everything about you?

Use a password locker. A password locker enables you to have a master password that access your other passwords. Why is this so important, because then you can use really good individual password such as 15 characters or more with lots of non-standard characters for your passwords for every account. There are free ones, but I think it might be worth the price of a couple of latte’s month to protect yourself and gain the integration features found in the paid versions.

Use two-factor authentication. I have 2-factor on all my important accounts or require it when I make major changes to account such as updating passwords, addresses, or transfer funds. I use an authentication application on my smartphone to provide me the 6 digit code where it’s allowed. In other cases, I just have the system text me the 6 digit code. Two-factor proves you have control of the device.

Use strong passwords. Strong passwords are not that hard to come up with. If you are using a password locker, most have strong password generators. I set mine so the characters are password characters are easy to read. So it avoids putting “1’s” next to “l’s” or “0’s” next to “O’s”. I know I’ve spent 5 minutes trying get serial numbers entered when I have a lot of similar looking characters. Another great trick is us longer passwords that are phrases. I find song titles from my youth relatively easy to remember.

Use shared passwords via a password locker. This is probably controversial, but we provide support for some older relatives. I also share access to household accounts like utilities, drug stores, and groceries with my spouse. In the case of the relative, they write the password on a post-it stuck to the refrigerator where anyone coming in sees it. Even then, they get stuck. Having secure access to the account and password, we can help them. In the case of shared household activities, it means we can back each other up and don’t end up texting passwords to each other. Where there is a family feature, we do use it, but until all accounts have family sharing, we’ll be using shared passwords.

Change the passwords. Change is hard. About the time I get comfortable with a password, it seems it’s time to change it. I’m less hard core about this requirement, but if you even suspect something is going on, be sure to change your password.

Lock your accounts down. If you can, lock up the features of your accounts that can rob you or take control of your accounts. I’m not old enough to use my 401k, so they are locked for withdraws. Most other accounts, don’t allow significant changes without additional confirmation. Also, the change in law lets you lock your credit reporting accounts so no one can open loan or charge without you unlocking them. They can still report on you, but it protects you. Spend some time getting to know the features of your major accounts.

Audit everything. While you are in locking, you should turn on your audit features. For example, I get get an email or text if someone makes a foreign charge or charges over $500 on my credit card. It takes 5 seconds to read and delete if it is OK. If it’s not, I can contact the credit card company in seconds to stop the problem before it becomes my problem. The only draw back, it is really hard to buy a gift for my spouse when traveling because she gets the alerts. I can live with it.

No matter what anyone tells you or how great your biometrics are, you still need good passwords. I think a password locker is helpful and certainly better than pad of paper, post-it notes, or Excel spreadsheet. After that, it is up to you to use it, set good passwords, and monitor your account statuses. Access anywhere is a great super power and with great power comes the responsibility to use it with care.

Using a DJI Drone to record house build

Using waypoints to make amazing drone videos.

Drones provide an inexpensive, easy way to record from high above and far away with little or no training. There is no pilot’s license required for small but competent drones, but you do have to avoid no fly zones such as airports, certain municipalities, or harassing individuals. As a person who builds and fixes computing systems (technology, process, people) for a living and a person who tinkers with everything from computers to IoT to cars and boats to houses for fun, it was always my desire to build a house. I’ve been using my DJI Phantom 3 SE (no longer manufactured) drone to thoroughly document the build process.

Modern drones are relatively easy to fly. That doesn’t mean the pictures, especially video, will look any good. I took lot of ugly video at first. There always is the thrill of being aloft, which you can observe from your phone. The DJI Phantom 3 SE (my older drone) and newer drones use GPS or GPS+GLONASS, typically fly for about 20 to 30 mins, range 1/2 to 1 mile, record at 720p or 1080p, hover within 0.5 to 0.1m if you just let go of everything even in a stiff breeze, newer ones avoid objects, and fly at up to about 50 MPH.

I prefer a dedicated controller, but many can be flown from just a smartphone. Many  have advanced abilities to follow-you or at least the controller, circle a known point, do special effects, respond to hand gestures, or fly a pre-assigned flight path made up of waypoints.

Waypoints are your friend when making a video. The best way I’ve found to get a good video, excluding editing (not covered here), is to set a flight path via waypoints, save the mission, and then run the mission.  There are numerous youtube videos out that illustrate the process. I’ve included a video from DJI below to illustrate the process using my DJI drone, but other drones and drone manufacturers have similar abilities.

The real trick is when you run your mission is to set the “Head to:” setting to “FREE”. In head to mode FREE, you control where the camera points. So now you know the drone will fly the mission, not crash, and you can focus on pointing the camera. Shots always are more dramatic if you can move the camera on 3-axis. You already have motion, but you tilt up and down and pan side to side. You’ll get a pretty decent video without editing.

In addition, you can repeat the mission since it saved for you. By flying the same mission, you can see changes over time. In the case of my house build, I have flown around the home site in each stage of the build. I now have a video library I can check to see the house slowly being built.

Enough people have expressed interest in my house build in Florida that I am going to write a new blog on it. Once I get enough content, I’ll post the new WordPress site here.

Screen Shot 2016-08-28 at 10.50.35 PM

Looking at Salesforce & dreaming big

SalesForce (SFDC), more than any other SaaS company, has paved the way for SaaS as model for selling a business service underpinned by technology. SFDC understood before most that SaaS was not a new way to pay for software and software implementations, but a way to swiftly create value. No business wants to buy software, hardware, networks, computers, data centers, and IT people (gag! cough! expensive!). Businesses want buy solutions to their problems and enable more revenue and profit. All that other “stuff” which I personally care a lot about, is not the core of business.

I saw the following article in TechCrunch. It looks at what is right, wrong, and what are the ongoing trends base on SFDC.
There are a lot of important messages. I think older IT businesses found before the iPhone fail to understand or take advantage of the “the consumerization of IT” or the fact that “compute is very inexpensive”. On the other hand, a more established providers do understand need for  “enhanced security due to increased exposure” and “computing is location agnostic” (hybrid cloud). A lot of compute will grow outside of corporate data centers, but I don’t think corporate data centers will entirely disappear in the near term.
Under computing is cheap, I saw this little snippet.
“By comparison, at the same time that Salesforce was founded, Google was running on its first data center—with combined total compute and RAM comparable to that of a single iPhone X. That is not a joke.”  And 11 years before that I was in class with professor lamenting they paid more for 256 bytes of memory than we were paying for 256 kbytes of memory.
Around the same time (1988), I was reading an article that has stuck with me for 30+ years which I can’t find. It basically stated that at the time “X Windows System”  was developed, it ran so slow it was impossible to use (minutes to paint a scree), but that developers had confidence that the CPU, Networks, and Graphics would catch up – and they did. We’ll see this same pattern with AI, VR, Blockchain, etc. today.
The real lesson is go BIG when you are innovating. The computing, often driven by IBM (see Summit – worlds fastest computer with whole new architecture), has an amazing history of catching up and passing our wildest dreams.
So dream big and go innovate. There are whole new technologies being built to meet the challenge.
 

GitHub purchase by Microsoft

From my view, Microsoft bought GitHub for 2 major reasons – access and information. Access is the first reason and it enables an extension of their own tools and cloud. My assumption is GitHub will soon find the first option for tools and for cloud to be Microsoft’s unique line up. Why would a developer publish to AWS, Oracle, Google, or IBM if a single button press got you the latest features and tightest integration by going to Azure. They won’t eliminate or block the others, they’ll just make Microsoft the default.

I don’t think Microsoft is buying GitHub to bury it or ruin it. Microsoft is not exactly the biggest promotor of open source, but they are an active player. This is not like Gillette buying the stainless steel razor blade patent so they could drag their feet on producing one and get more money out of their existing products. If Microsoft blocked GitHub, I think the world would just develop an alt-GitHub or shift to competitor.

The second is probably the more important: information. GitHub is where developers, programmers, and coders dream. They put snippets of code which are glimmers of the future. Simply understanding what libraries, language, databases, tools, and clouds are being used, frequency, and in what combinations will yield bright headlights into the near future. If you release a new library, you can now easily see its uptake in the community. Put more money into it if it’s yours, alter yours to look more like the winner, partner where you can’t win, or buy it up if it’s a good investment.

As long as Microsoft uses a respectful hand and doesn’t become the evil overlord, I think the purchase of GitHub will yield a bounty of information by which they can steer their own development of tools and products. For a company that has jumped in late on the Internet, Open Software, and Cloud, they sure do an impressive about faces.

 

Digital Twin: the 2018 agile wind tunnel with quantum future

Digital Twins enable testing of real world testing of complex systems. The concept of living test lab has been dream for testers. Digital Twins are not static, but allow for constant new input based on the real world from IoT sensors. Digital Twins make use of AI, Machine Learning, and IoT to simulate complex system behaviors. IBM is working in our labs and with our clients to find exciting new ways to use and create digital twins.

When flight first started, a man had to risk his life to test each innovation. An innovation had a high threshold since the bet was a human life. Eventually, engineers built wind tunnels where they could simulate the effect of the air flow over the plane. While it no longer was risking a life, it had limitations on size (can’t fit an entire 747 in wind tunnel), was artificial, and was costly.  Also how do you simulate more complex events like sudden down drafts, lightening strikes, rough landings, wear and tear over years (metal fatigue, corrosion)? Now with digital twin, you can test the effect of changes to the digital twin of the airplane. We can run 100’s or 1,000’s of changes and combinations of changes to identify the impacts. Only the best of these changes will be put into use.

The while the changes put into use could be small, similar to agile built software application, they would add up to significant impacts. The feedback from the IoT devices in the real world will then update the digital twin allowing new sets of changes to be developed, deployed, and tested before the best combinations are rolled out in rapid succession. As most planes are now fly by wire and highly digital, incremental changes are possible to many of the systems. Today it might not be possible to reshape physical parts like wings, fuselage and rudders, but maybe in the future technologies could reshape the surface to change physical parts of the plane. Clearly there would need to be progression from test bed, to unmanned, to test flights before it went into passenger aircraft, but the rate of innovation in safety related industry goes up by orders magnitude and the risk and costs come down proportionally, too.

The ability to try millions and even billions of combinations in each digital twin is not yet possible as it would overwhelm the compute power of traditional binary computers. The rapidly evolving Quantum Computer may provide the power required to make machine learning nearly unlimited in capacity enabling deep learning and unlimited numbers of combinations of factors in our digital twins. You can even try out quantum for yourself in IBM’s DevOp environment – bluemix.

Benefits of digital twins can apply to almost any machine, group of machines, or ecosystem of lots of groups of machines. I wonder if in the future, a quantum digital twin could be more complex and subtle in its simulation than the real world. As of today, our models of reality pale in complexity to the real world. Below is simply mind map machine systems with a focus on transportation machines. It shows how digital twins can use data from other digital twins. It is model composed of multiple models.

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 1.55.54 PM
A network of machine ecosystems that can become digital twins

How could a digital twin help your industry? How can you take advantage of a digital twin to improve the quality of life and leverage the vast amount of data pouring out from mushrooming number of IoT sensors? It is an exciting problem to explore with real business implications.